My call right now: Paxton is a slight favorite, but not a safe favorite.
I would put it around:
Ken Paxton: 55–60% chance
James Talarico: 40–45% chance
That is almost a toss-up, with a Republican lean, because Texas remains a Republican-leaning statewide electorate. Ballotpedia lists Paxton and Talarico as the major-party nominees for the Texas U.S. Senate race on Nov. 3, 2026, and notes that the last Democrat to win a Texas U.S. Senate race was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. It also notes Cruz beat Allred by about 8.5 points in 2024 and Cornyn beat Hegar by almost 10 points in 2020.
But the race is real. The latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll had Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, statistically indistinguishable. A New York Times/Siena poll had them tied 47–47, which is why people are suddenly treating Texas as competitive.
The professional forecasters still lean Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Texas from Likely Republican to Leans Republican after Paxton won, saying Republicans picked a riskier candidate, but “riskier can still win.” Prediction markets are indicating something similar: Polymarket had Paxton at around 55% and Talarico at around 44% as of July 5.
So the plain-English version:
If this were a normal Republican nominee, I would say the Republican wins comfortably.
Because it is Paxton, Talarico has a real opening.
Because it is Texas, Paxton still has the edge.
Talarico wins if he keeps the race about Paxton’s character, corruption, abuse of power, and public trust — and if Latino, young, suburban, and anti-Paxton Republican voters actually show up.
Paxton wins if the race becomes a normal red-versus-blue Texas race, where party ID does the heavy lifting and voters decide they dislike Democrats more than they dislike Paxton.
Right now: lean Paxton, but close enough that I would not laugh at anyone predicting Talarico.