Ladies and gentlemen of the Democratic Party, come on over. I have something I think you are going to like.
No, it is not another consultant. You already own enough of those.
I am selling 47 states.
That is right. According to The Economist’s state-by-state estimates based on YouGov polling, Donald Trump currently has a positive net approval rating in only three states: Wyoming, Idaho, and West Virginia. He is underwater everywhere else. Texas is estimated at minus 22. Florida is minus 18. North Carolina: minus 25. Georgia: minus 31. Pennsylvania: minus 26. Wisconsin: minus 28. Arizona: minus 23.
Now, before you reach for your wallet, let me disclose the fine print. Those are modeled estimates, not 50 individual state polls. You should not take every number as gospel.
But don’t leave yet.
Because I have considerably more merchandise in the warehouse.
Take a look at the national model
Reuters/Ipsos just measured Trump’s approval at 33 percent, tying the lowest rating of either of his presidencies. Among independent voters asked which party they would support for Congress, Democrats led Republicans 33 to 19.
Emerson College, surveying likely voters, has the congressional ballot at Democrats 51, Republicans 43.
That is an eight-point Democratic advantage.
Would you like to see our deluxe model?
It comes with a Senate.
Five days ago, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Cook now describes control of the Senate itself as essentially a toss-up, although Republicans retain a slight structural advantage.
Texas.
Did I mention Texas?
Donald Trump carried Texas by double digits in 2024. Yet Emerson’s August poll has Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico only 47 to 46. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa only 49 to 45. Trump himself was underwater in that Texas poll, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. Among Hispanic voters, 58 percent disapproved of Trump.
Cook has now moved the Texas governor’s race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Nobody is telling you Gina Hinojosa is ahead.
I am telling you that somebody just removed the words SOLID REPUBLICAN from the price tag in Texas.
But wait. There’s more.
Perhaps you don’t trust polls.
Excellent.
I have actual elections.
Since Donald Trump returned to office, Democrats have flipped 31 Republican-held state legislative seats. Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats. An independent analysis by The Downballot examined 110 special elections since January 2025 and found Democratic candidates running an average of 12.5 points ahead of Kamala Harris’s 2024 performance.
The latest one came in Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump carried the district by 18 points in 2024. Republicans had controlled the state House seat for decades.
Democrat Brandon Dukes just won it.
If that happened once, call it an accident.
If it happened five times, call it interesting.
When Democrats have flipped 31 seats, and Republicans have flipped none, perhaps somebody in Democratic headquarters should stop staring at the spreadsheet and look out the window.
So what exactly am I selling?
Not a prediction.
Not a guaranteed blue wave.
I am selling opportunity.
I am selling Texas when the Senate race is tied.
I am selling Iowa when Cook says toss-up.
I am selling Republican congressional districts where the president of the United States has become a liability instead of an asset.
I am selling state legislative districts that Democratic consultants would once have thrown into the trash before anybody bothered knocking on the first door.
And here is today’s special offer:
You don’t have to buy all 47 states.
Just stop deciding which ones you have already lost.
Republicans understand something Democrats sometimes forget. If the other side is weak, you don’t politely leave territory on the table because history says it belongs to them.
You attack.
You make them spend money in Texas.
Make them spend money in Iowa.
Make them defend Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, and Mississippi.
Make a Republican senator explain Donald Trump to voters who no longer like Donald Trump.
Make a Republican state representative defend a district Trump carried by 18 points after Democrats just proved that such a district can flip.
Every dollar Republicans spend defending something they thought was safe is a dollar they cannot spend somewhere else.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is what we in the sales business call leverage.
So I am going to ask you one last time:
Trump is at 33 percent nationally. Democrats lead the congressional ballot. Independents are moving away from Republicans. Texas and Iowa are Senate toss-ups. Thirty-one Republican legislative seats have already changed hands.
And according to one major state model, Trump is above water in only three states.
What exactly are you waiting for?
