Greg Abbott has spent years presenting himself as the man who does not need Washington. Texas would secure its own border, fight the federal government in court and go its own way when necessary.
But Washington suddenly looks very useful.
On September 17, Abbott announced that nearly $12 billion in Medicaid money for Texas had been restored after a dispute with the federal government that had dragged on for almost a year. Texas hospitals had been facing losses of about $27 million a day while the money was being withheld. Abbott called the agreement a “major victory” and thanked the Trump administration. (The Texas Tribune)
Then, one day later, Abbott announced another federal windfall: $7.5 billion to reimburse Texas for money spent on Operation Lone Star.
That money had been authorized by Congress 14 months earlier. Texas had been asking for it ever since. Senator John Cornyn complained only a few weeks ago that getting the money released had been like “pulling teeth.” Yet on September 17, the Department of Homeland Security finally approved the $7.5 billion, and Abbott announced it publicly the next day. (The Texas Tribune)
Add the two together, and you are looking at nearly $20 billion in federal money benefiting Texas in essentially the same news cycle.
The timing gets more interesting when you look at the governor’s race.
Two new statewide polls were released September 17. One, conducted by Recon MR, showed Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading Abbott 49% to 45%. The poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points, so nobody should pretend that it proves Abbott is losing. Another poll released the same day, from Emerson College/Nexstar, showed Abbott ahead 49% to 46%. (The Texas Politics Project)
But the Recon poll produced something Abbott has not been accustomed to seeing during his years as governor: a statewide poll with Gina Hinojosa’s name above his.
For an incumbent who once appeared almost untouchable, that has to be an uncomfortable headline.
And while all of this is happening, the Trump administration is moving an extraordinary number of undocumented children into Texas.
According to reporting by The Guardian, nearly 80% of children newly placed into immigration proceedings in July were sent to Texas shelters. In August, the figure rose above 90%. Of 925 children with open Texas immigration cases examined in the reporting, 651 had been sent to Texas during July and August. (The Guardian)
Texas has therefore become much more than another state participating in federal immigration enforcement. It is becoming one of the principal places where the Trump administration is putting these children.
So put the pieces together.
Abbott and Trump are political allies on immigration. Texas is taking an extraordinary share of undocumented children. Abbott had been asking Washington for billions of dollars tied to border enforcement. Texas had also been fighting to recover nearly $12 billion in Medicaid money.
Then a poll comes out showing Gina Hinojosa ahead.
Within essentially the same period, Washington resolves the Medicaid dispute and releases $7.5 billion in long-delayed border reimbursement money.
Is it a bribe?
There is no evidence of a written agreement saying, “Take the children, and we will give Texas $20 billion.” Calling it a proven bribe would go beyond what the evidence shows.
But does it look politically convenient?
Very much so.
And that raises a legitimate question: Is Texas simply receiving money it was already entitled to at an extraordinarily fortunate moment, or is Washington rewarding one of the Trump administration’s most cooperative partners just when Greg Abbott needs something to show Texas voters?
Maybe it is all coincidence.
But $20 billion is a hell of a coincidence.
