The Seats Keep Falling
One election can be dismissed as a fluke. Thirty Republican state legislative seats changing hands since Donald Trump returned to office begins to look like something else. Before yesterday’s Pennsylvania result, Democrats had flipped 30 Republican-held seats while Republicans had flipped none in the other direction.
2025
- Iowa Senate District 35
- Pennsylvania Senate District 36
- Iowa Senate District 1
- Mississippi Senate District 2
- Mississippi Senate District 45
- Mississippi House District 22
- Georgia House District 121
- New Jersey Assembly District 2
- New Jersey Assembly District 8
- New Jersey Assembly District 21 — two seats
- New Jersey Assembly District 25 — five Republican seats altogether.
- Virginia House Districts 22, 30, 41, 57, 64, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 82, 86 and 89 — thirteen Republican seats in one election.
2026
- Texas Senate District 9
- Arkansas House District 70
- New Hampshire House, Carroll District 7
- Florida Senate District 14
- Florida House District 87
And now comes Pennsylvania House District 12, a district Republicans have held since 1999 and Trump carried by more than 18 points in 2024. Democrat Brandon Dukes is ahead by 88 votes with virtually all ballots counted. If that lead survives the final count, put another one on the board: 31.
Republicans can explain away one special election. They can blame turnout for another. They can blame the candidate for a third.
Thirty-one starts getting harder to explain away.
