For most of the last two years, Republicans acted as though Donald Trump’s return to the White House had given them control of Washington for the foreseeable future. With less than two months before the 2026 midterm elections, the political tide is flowing in the other direction.
The latest FiftyPlusOne election model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning control of the House. Republicans are down to just a 7 percent chance.
Even more surprising is the Senate. FiftyPlusOne now gives Democrats a 57 percent chance of taking control, compared with 43 percent for Republicans.
That doesn’t mean Democrats have won anything yet. But a Democratic Senate majority, which once looked like a long shot because Democrats must gain four seats, has moved into toss-up territory.
It Isn’t Just One Model
Nate Silver’s election model is seeing much the same political environment. Silver wrote in August that virtually every important indicator—polling, historical midterm patterns and recent election results—was pointing toward a strong Democratic year, describing the House as essentially the Democrats’ to lose while acknowledging that the Senate remained considerably harder. (Silver Bulletin)
The national congressional ballot helps explain why. Silver’s average had Democrats ahead 6.6 percentage points as September began, and his likely-voter adjustment increased that Democratic advantage to 7.6 points. (Silver Bulletin)
Those aren’t numbers Republicans want to see two months before an election.
Trump Is Dragging Republicans Into the Current
Donald Trump isn’t helping them.
Silver’s presidential approval average on September 4 put Trump’s net approval at minus 19.5 points, only slightly better than his second-term low of minus 20.6. (Silver Bulletin)
Midterm elections have historically punished the president’s party, especially when the president is unpopular. This year Republicans also have to defend a Senate map that has expanded far beyond the handful of races they expected to worry about.
Roll Call reported this summer that Trump’s weak approval had helped push normally Republican states including Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, Alaska and South Carolina into the broader Senate battlefield. (Roll Call)
Texas being mentioned in that sentence tells you how much has changed.
What Once Looked Impossible No Longer Does
Democrats still have plenty of ways to screw this up. A 57 percent chance of winning the Senate is barely better than a coin toss, and forecasts are probabilities—not election results.
But look at the direction.
The House isn’t sitting at 55-45. It’s 93-7 in the FiftyPlusOne model.
The Senate isn’t being described simply as safely Republican anymore. Democrats are now slightly favored.
The generic congressional ballot has Democrats ahead by six or seven points. Trump’s approval rating is nearly twenty points underwater. And Senate races that ordinarily wouldn’t receive serious Democratic attention are suddenly being discussed as competitive.
Two months remain.
The tide can still change.
But right now, it is flowing blue.
