The Houston Chronicle posted a poll taken that indicates that Cruz would defeat Colin Allred by nine (9%) percentage points and Gutierrez by ten (10%) percentage points.
It is too early for polls, but the news media has become so desperate for paid readership or (clicks) that too many are trying to create the news. Polls are fairly cheap and they do get people to click on the story. The poll that the Chronicle used is from the University of Houston, the Hobby School of Public Affairs.
The persons that were polled were;
In order to identify frontrunners and opinions during a highly charged election year, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted an online survey of Texas registered voters between January 11 and January 24, 2024. The survey was fielded in English and Spanish with 1,500 YouGov respondents, resulting in a confidence interval of +/-2.5%. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education and are representative of the population of Texas registered voters.
What is YouGov?
How YouGov Daily Questions work
Each day YouGov asks topical questions to get the public’s first judgement on the biggest issues of the day. These launch each weekday morning, and the results are released by the next day.
It’s possible to respond to these questions in multiple places, including the YouGov website and app. Once you have responded you can also view the live, unweighted results collected so far.
However, these numbers are just an early indication, and it’s important to be cautious with them. Unlike a traditional poll they are not yet weighted to be representative of the full population – an adjustment that we do to ensure that the results are an accurate depiction of the views of all U.S. Adults.
It also means that, because anybody can take part in the poll through the YouGov website even if they are not regular panelists, people with a particular interest in a topic may be more likely to take part, skewing the results.
Source
After the primary, when the Democrats decide who will be their nominee or US Senate, polls, if done correctly, will most likely be close to the outcome. One of the most well known pollsters is Nate Silvers, and what he does is take all the polls and get an average that he claims will be closer to being correct.
In a state-wide campaign, money is king, and Colin Allred is ahead of the pack. It takes money to get your message out, especially in markets like Houston. Following is an ad that will be coming out on Spanish TV.
Gutierrez does have a video, but I would be surprised if he has sufficient funds to run it in all the major markets or any of them. If Gutierrez were the only Spanish-surname person running, I would give him a good chance of winning, but there are a lot of Hispanics that are in the primary for the US Senate.
I would vote for Gonzalez if I were not supporting Allred. That guy has balls and has shown that he will stand up for hard-working men and women. However, I decided that Allred was our best bet against Cruz, and I have yet to be convinced I was wrong.
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Chronicle – U of H – Hobby full poll
