If one of the most famous so-called political gurus (Nate Silver) can use his gut to predict that Trump will win, then I think I can use my gut to predict that he is wrong. Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. Nate Silvers failed to mention that crypto betters employ him, most of whom are supporting Trump.
As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket has struck while the iron is hot by hiring well-known statistician and writer Nate Silver as an adviser, according to an Axios report.
Experts on probabilities are not impressed with Nate Silvers.
These are not terribly new inconsistencies to ponder. The efficient market theory—the strategy that runs the world’s money—also has no solution for surprise (i.e., black swans). Silver simply illustrates the conundrum across a different discipline, but with the same pressing problem. In summer 2016, Nassim Taleb, the father of the black swan concept, launched a detailed criticism of Silver into the public sphere: “@FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally clueless about probability yet make a business in it.”
The intellectual cage match: Nassim Taleb versus Nate Silver.
Pick your side carefully. It’s life or death.
The model created by Silver’s 538 is being skewed by Republican pollsters who are rigging the polls to promote Trump. There are approximately 80 such pollsters that are putting out rigged polls. The theory is that if people believe someone is going to win, there is a chance they will vote for them as they want to bet on the winner.
Based on what I have read from numerous articles, most people who lean toward Democrats are knocking on doors and making phone calls; they are enthused by the responses they are getting.
A recent article states that only .04 percent of the people who would be polled are responding to calls, emails, or texts—less than half of one percent.
So, my gut (educated guess) tells me that Kamala Harris will be the first female president of the United States.