If the person who conducted the poll in Iowa is correct, it would not be a stretch to believe that the same thing may occur in other states.
Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register came out Saturday, and it’s a political thermonuclear bomb:
Kamala Harris: 47
Donald Trump: 44The previous poll had Trump up 47-43 in September, and leading President Joe Biden 50-32 in June.
And this matters far beyond saying “it’s just one poll.”
Selzer is one of the nation’s most accurate pollsters, doing the vast majority of her work in her home state of Iowa.
Her track record is impeccable: (Actual results in parenthesis)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3) — a rare miss
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
It seems that seniors and senior women are breaking for Harris. Iowa has just recently adopted an abortion ban, and it is still fresh on the minds of the people there, so that may also be having an effect, but I am not sure why seniors would care as much as they are not affected.
But if it is happening in Iowa, it may happen in other places, including Texas. Here in Texas, it may be the Black and Latino voting. I have not sat down to see the percentage of Spanish-surname voters who voted early. A look at two days indicated that the number of Hispanic voters was up.
B) Early voting total in Texas has reached 8.8 million. In 2020 11.0 million votes were cast in Texas…another whopping high percentage coming out ENTHUSIASTICALLY! Oh, and in Texas? There is a history of Low Turnout; that 11 million in 2020 was only 53% of eligible voters.
Now, and after last Sunday’s Madison Square Garden Hatefest, calling Puerto Ricans “garbage”, there is fury in the land. More significant are several reports of Latino communities of all origins saying out loud and to each other “We are ALL PUERTO RICANS now!”…….and in Texas, that 11 million from 2020? 53% of voters? Ummm…..the Latino/Hispanic people in Texas are 39.% of the total population…..which is 11 million all by themselves……