Trump keeps threatening our neighbors and allies all around us. Soon, the following may be true, except that the US will be divided into four areas.
Not as far-fetched as it seems; I wrote this a week ago, trying to think why someone is guiding Trump that way. I say guiding because I don’t think Trump is capable of something so deep.
In my report, I detailed what European leaders are saying behind the scenes and now increasingly in public. Germany’s foreign minister has stated that if Trump invades Greenland, Germany would invoke every NATO right to defend Denmark, including military force. That means Europe would be compelled to respond to an invasion carried out by the United States against one of its own allies. Germany, France, and other NATO members are preparing contingency war plans for this exact scenario. That is how seriously they take Trump’s threats.
More to think about the reality of what I have mentioned. Canada is moving closer to China; Mexico will not be far behind. Trump is driving them into China’s arms.
What is Geopolitics 101 according to Professor John Mearsheimer? Well its very simple, Great Powers, particularly nuclear powers, are going to do what they need to do to look after their own interests. This is particularly the case when it comes to areas close to the great powers.
This idea has been the core of the realists arguments on Russia and Ukraine since. All states (type of regime is basically irrelevant to them) seek security and power in a chaotic international system. And the larger the power the more the interest. In particular this seems to apply to neighboring and close states. And nuclear armed powers in particular are to be deferred to.
Stephen Walt made this entirely clear on the eve of Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. In an article published only a month before the full-scale invasion, lesser power Ukraine was described as a security interest of Great Power Russia—with all that that entailed.
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