Polls show that Sylvia Garcia is ahead.
But if she doesn’t win the primary outright and it goes to a runoff, I would be surprised if she wins. In fact it may not even be close unless there a lot of white progressives that reside in the district.
More than two-thirds (70%) of likely Congressional District 29 primary voters have a favorable opinion of Garcia, while 23% don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Close to one-half (45%) have a favorable opinion of Johnson, while 41% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
The reasons I believe I will be correct are that Hispanics don’t return to run-off in the same percentages or numbers, not here in Houston or Harris County. The Demographics of primary voters in the new 29th Congressional District are: Source for data below.
Recent Democratic Primary electorate (2022 & 2024 averages)
Race of voters:
- Black voters: 44%
- White voters: 31%
- Hispanic voters: 22%
Sylvia Garcia will have to get the vast majority of White voters, and they must come back to vote for her if there is a runoff. Because one thing that the Black community does is vote, and they tend to vote for their own, we all do.