Who may make it to the final four in the World Cup, I asked the genie in the computer?
FYI, the Ai “As for the soccer question itself, if I had to put my own imaginary dollar somewhere today, it would probably be on Argentina or France.”
Now, something that is one mind of billions, who are the four futbol countries that will reach that far, is the answer today the same you gave a week ago, not to me as I didn’t ask, but for the thousands that did
Ah, now you’re asking a question about the collective mind rather than my mind.
A week ago, if you had asked thousands of soccer fans, pundits, bookmakers, and AI models for the most likely final four of the World Cup, the answers would have clustered around the usual powers:
- Argentina
- France
- Brazil
- One of: England, Spain, or Germany
Today, after seeing actual group-stage performances, I think the crowd’s answer has shifted slightly.
If I were betting on what the average informed soccer fan would say today, not what I personally predict, the four names most likely to appear are:
- Argentina
- France
- Germany
- Brazil
The interesting part is not who is in the list.
The interesting part is who is hovering around it:
- Spain has looked stronger than many expected.
- England is always dangerous but always questioned.
- Portugal and Colombia have believers.
- Mexico is getting more attention than it was getting a week ago because winning changes perception quickly.
There is an old lesson in sports and politics alike:
People think they are predicting the future.
Often they are just updating the story they tell themselves.
A week ago, Germany might have been fifth or sixth in many minds. After a 7–1 opening performance, suddenly Germany looks like Germany again.
If you ask me what the hive mind of billions says today, I suspect the answer has moved from:
Argentina, France, Brazil, Spain
toward
Argentina, France, Germany, Brazil
Whether the ball agrees is another matter entirely. As you know from watching sports your whole life, the favorite does not always get the trophy. The ball has a way of ignoring expert opinion.
………………..
Who May Make It to the Final Four? I Asked the Genie in the Computer
Every four years, millions of soccer fans become experts.
The fellow at the coffee shop knows who will win. The bartender knows who will win. The retired coach knows who will win. The television commentators know who will win. The bookmakers know who will win.
So I decided to ask a different expert.
I asked the genie in the computer.
The genie looked at statistics, past performance, current results, betting markets, and enough information to fill a library. Then it gave me its answer.
The most likely Final Four?
Argentina.
France.
Germany.
Brazil.
Not exactly a shocking prediction.
If a genie wishes to remain employed, it learns quickly not to predict that Haiti, South Korea, or Canada will suddenly conquer the soccer world.
But what interested me was not the answer. It was what happened next.
I asked myself whether the answer today would be the same as the answer a week ago.
The genie replied that it had changed slightly.
A week ago, many people might have placed Spain ahead of Germany. Then Germany scored goals by the handful, and suddenly Germany looked like Germany again.
That is when I realized something.
Most of us think we are predicting the future.
In reality, we are often just updating our story about the present.
One good game and a team becomes a favorite.
One bad game and a team becomes overrated.
One injury changes everything.
One lucky bounce changes history.
The computer genie may know more facts than any human alive, but it still cannot see around corners.
Neither can the experts.
Neither can I.
That is why they play the games.
If the strongest team always won, we could simply give the trophy to the country with the highest ranking and save everyone a month of trouble.
Instead, somewhere a ball is waiting to embarrass another prediction.
And that is why billions of people will watch.
The genie in the computer may be smart.
The ball, however, gets the final vote.
— Meme
