The economy pounds him. The Iran war cuts him. And the man who sees communists everywhere forged both weapons himself.
Donald Trump has spent years shouting “communist” at anyone who stood in his way.
Democrats are communists. Judges are communists. College students are communists. A governor who disagrees with him is a communist. A reporter who asks the wrong question may be a communist before lunchtime.
Trump has waved that word around like an old newspaper editor waving a bloody shirt—something bright, frightening and useful for keeping the crowd angry.
But now the hammer and sickle are not hanging over the Democrats.
They are hanging over Donald Trump.
The hammer is the economy.
The sickle is the Iran war.
And they are closing in from both sides.
The Washington Post described Trump’s approval rating politely: “stuck in the 30s.”
Stuck?
A president with 37 percent approval, 61 percent disapproval and only 15 percent of Americans saying they strongly approve is not merely stuck.
He is pinned to the floor.
The hammer comes down every morning when Americans walk into a grocery store.
It falls again at the gas pump.
It falls when the electric bill arrives.
It falls when rent is due.
Politicians can argue about inflation rates, tariffs, interest rates, market indexes and whether the economy is technically expanding. The person pushing a shopping cart does not need an economist. He knows how many bags of groceries his paycheck bought last year and how many it buys today.
The latest Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that 65 percent of Americans consider groceries unaffordable. Fifty-nine percent do not believe families like theirs have a good chance of improving their standard of living. Nearly half expect the economy to become worse during the coming year. Only 33 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. (Ipsos)
That is the hammer.
And it is not made of Democratic talking points.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that consumer prices were 3.5 percent higher in June than a year earlier. Food-at-home prices were up 2.7 percent. Electricity rose 4 percent. Gasoline was up 26.7 percent. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Trump can call the numbers fake.
He can blame the Federal Reserve.
He can blame Joe Biden, immigrants, China, Democrats, environmentalists, windmills or the cashier scanning the eggs.
But the price is still glowing above the gas pump in numbers large enough to read from the street.
A president may win an argument on television.
He cannot argue with the sign at the gas station.
Then comes the sickle.
Iran.
Trump sold himself as the man who would stop America from stumbling into endless foreign wars. He ridiculed the politicians who spent American blood and treasure in the Middle East. He said strength would frighten America’s enemies into obedience.
Instead, the United States is now in a war that most Americans believe will drag on.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll found that 79 percent expect the fighting to continue for an extended period. Only 37 percent approved of the American strikes. Sixty percent expected the war to make gasoline prices worse, and half said the conflict had not been worth its cost. (Reuters)
The Washington Post-Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval on Iran even lower—around 29 percent.
That is the sickle.
It cuts through Trump’s claim that he alone can control events.
It cuts through his promise that force would produce quick victory.
It cuts into the economy every time fighting threatens oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
And because the sickle cuts fuel supplies, it gives the hammer more weight.
The war pushes gasoline upward.
Higher gasoline prices raise transportation costs.
Transportation costs work their way into groceries, deliveries, construction and almost everything else Americans buy.
The hammer and the sickle are not two separate problems.
They are working together.
National gasoline prices were below $3 a gallon when the United States first attacked Iran in February. They later climbed above $4.50, fell back and began rising again when the fighting resumed. The Iran war is now threatening what little relief Republicans hoped falling fuel prices might provide before the election. (Axios)
And what is Trump doing while the metal closes around him?
He points at the Democrats and screams:
“Communists!”
That is the illustration.
Trump standing beneath a giant hammer marked ECONOMY and a curved sickle marked IRAN, both swinging toward his head, while he points somewhere else and warns the crowd that the communists are coming.
They are already there.
He built them.
The economy was supposed to be Trump’s shield. Instead, it has become the hammer beating his approval rating down.
Military strength was supposed to prove his command of the world. Instead, the Iran war has become the sickle cutting away public confidence, military certainty and the possibility of cheaper gasoline.
The deeper danger for Republicans is not that every Trump supporter has suddenly become a Democrat.
Most have not.
The danger is exhaustion.
The voter who once shouted “Trump!” may now mumble that he still supports him.
The family that once drove thirty miles to attend a rally may stay home.
The Republican who still hates Democrats may skip the congressional race because groceries cost too much and the war makes no sense.
Elections are not won only by conversion.
They are also won when the other side loses the will to show up.
That is why only 15 percent strongly approving of Trump may matter more than the larger number who still approve somewhat.
MAGA may not have abandoned him.
But the love affair is beginning to look more like an exhausted marriage in which everybody remains in the house because moving would be inconvenient.
There are fair objections.
One poll does not decide an election. Polls have underestimated Trump before. The Iran war could end. Gasoline prices could fall. Economic conditions could improve before November. The same Ipsos poll found neither party enjoyed a meaningful public advantage on the economy, with Republicans and Democrats nearly tied and a quarter of Americans trusting neither. (Ipsos)
All true.
But those arguments describe what might rescue Trump.
The hammer and sickle describe what is crushing him now.
Trump spent a decade teaching Americans to fear communists hiding under every bed.
He should have looked above his own.
The hammer is already falling.
The sickle is already cutting.
And both have his name stamped on the handle.
