There are political polls, and then there are political polls that make you stop and look at who conducted them.
Candidates and political organizations have been releasing favorable internal polls for decades. They do it for a reason. A good poll generates headlines, raises money, reassures donors, and creates the impression that a campaign is moving.
That is why the newest Texas Senate poll caught my attention.
It came from Fox News.
And Fox has Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 48%. (Fox News)
Nobody should declare Talarico the next senator from Texas based on that number. The three-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error.
But one poll is not the story.
The direction is.
Paxton started ahead
Once the Republican runoff was finished and Paxton became the nominee, the general-election race had a clean starting point.
The June University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%. Statistically, it was already a close race, but Paxton was ahead. (The Texas Politics Project)
Then came the movement.
A late-June New York Times/Siena poll had them tied at 47%.
Texas Public Opinion Research later put Talarico ahead 45% to 40%.
Then Fox News found Talarico ahead 51% to 48%.
And the latest Texas Southern University poll has Talarico ahead 47% to 45%.
Axios now describes it for what it is: three consecutive polls showing Talarico ahead. (Axios)
The individual numbers bounce around. Polls always do.
What has not bounced around lately is who is in front.
Talarico started the general election slightly behind Paxton. Republicans have spent the summer attacking him from almost every direction imaginable.
He is still standing.
And now he is repeatedly polling ahead.
Republicans have already thrown the kitchen sink at him
Nobody can say Republicans have been saving their ammunition.
The attacks began almost immediately after Paxton won the runoff.
They dug up Talarico’s comments about God and gender. They attacked him over climate change. They called him a vegan even though he isn’t one. They portrayed him as anti-Texas, anti-business and radically liberal.
Paxton tried out nicknames: “Tofu Talarico,” “Six-Gender Jimmy,” “James Tala-freak-o” and “Low-T Talarico.”
The Club for Growth ran an advertisement calling him a “crazy person.”
Donald Trump joined in, calling Talarico possibly the “worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen” and attacking him on the border, crime, gender, religion, masks and even whether he eats meat. (The Texas Tribune)
Republicans have not failed to attack James Talarico.
They have been conducting the experiment for more than two months.
So far, it does not appear to be working.
That does not mean it won’t work later. Republicans have enormous amounts of money available, and Axios reports that the Republican strategy remains to drive up Talarico’s negatives with massive advertising and wait for Republican voters to come home. (Axios)
But there is a problem with that strategy.
Some Republican voters may already know who James Talarico is.
And some apparently don’t dislike him.
Then Fox took the temperature
This is where the name on the poll matters.
The Fox News survey was not commissioned by the Talarico campaign or some Democratic political organization looking for a fundraising headline.
Fox conducted the survey under the direction of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican polling firm. It surveyed 1,006 registered Texas voters July 23-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. (Fox News)
Fox’s own Republican pollster, Daron Shaw, did not dismiss what the numbers were saying.
He said the Republican primary had left scars and that Paxton had “considerable work to do” with non-MAGA Republicans and independents. (Fox News)
That is considerably more important to me than another Democratic consultant announcing that Democrats can win Texas.
Fox’s poll found 68% of independents supporting Talarico. Even more striking, 24% of non-MAGA Republicans were supporting him. (Fox News)
And Republicans have another problem.
They keep trying to convince Texans that Talarico is too extreme.
Fox asked voters about that.
Forty-seven percent said they were concerned Talarico was too extreme.
But 59% were concerned that Ken Paxton lacked the character to serve in the United States Senate. (Fox News)
Republicans have spent weeks telling Texans what they should fear about Talarico.
Texans may be looking at Paxton instead.
Hannity doesn’t believe Fox
That produced one of the stranger moments of the campaign.
Former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio appeared on Sean Hannity’s Fox News program and said Talarico could win Texas.
Hannity dismissed the idea.
De Blasio pointed out that Fox’s own poll had Talarico ahead.
Hannity replied:
“I don’t believe it for two seconds.”
There is something wonderfully revealing about that exchange.
A Democrat didn’t walk onto Fox News carrying a Democratic campaign poll and ask Hannity to believe it.
He walked onto Fox News and pointed to Fox News’ poll.
Hannity wouldn’t believe it. (People.com)
This is still Texas
None of this means James Talarico will win.
Texas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Republicans have an enormous organizational advantage, and Paxton has survived political scandals before and continued winning statewide elections.
Three polls showing Talarico ahead by margins of two, three and five points can all still describe an extraordinarily close election.
But there is a difference between saying Talarico will win Texas and saying Talarico may win Texas.
The evidence now supports the second statement.
And that evidence did not come from James Talarico.
It came from Fox News.
Paxton began the general election slightly ahead. Republicans immediately launched the kind of cultural attacks that have worked for them in election after election. Talarico did not collapse. Three consecutive polls now show him in front.
Then Fox News asked Texas voters what they thought.
51% Talarico.
48% Paxton.
Sean Hannity may not believe it for two seconds.
Republicans might want to believe it long enough to worry.
