Nate Silver is one of America’s best-known election forecasters. A statistician and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, he became nationally known after correctly predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and all 50 in 2012. He now publishes his election models through the Silver Bulletin.
His latest model gives James Talarico roughly a 2-to-1 chance of beating Ken Paxton.
Something extraordinary is happening in Texas.
James Talarico is no longer simply a Democrat making a surprisingly strong run for the U.S. Senate.
He is now favored to win.
Nate Silver’s new 2026 election forecast gives Talarico a 62.8% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton, compared with 37.2% for Paxton, and rates the Texas Senate race Lean Democratic. (Nate Silver’s Substack)
Put more simply:
Silver is giving Talarico roughly a 2-to-1 chance of becoming the next U.S. senator from Texas.
That would have sounded almost ridiculous a year ago.
Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
But the polls are beginning to tell the same story as Silver’s model.
The latest Texas A&M/ReconMR poll has Talarico ahead 47% to 43%. A Fox News poll put him ahead 51% to 48%. (Houston Chronicle)
And the numbers underneath those polls may be even more important.
Talarico is crushing Paxton among independent voters. The Fox poll had him ahead among independents 68% to 29%. (Houston Chronicle)
Paxton also has a Republican problem. Recent polling found him receiving only about 85% of Republican voters, while Talarico was holding about 97% of Democrats. Some non-MAGA Republicans are crossing over to Talarico. (Houston Chronicle)
That is the formula for turning Texas blue without suddenly turning millions of Republicans into Democrats:
Hold your Democrats. Win the independents. Peel off enough Republicans who cannot vote for Paxton.
Even Paxton seems to understand the danger. He recently went on Fox News saying, “We need help,” while trying to rally Republicans and raise money for the race. Talarico has also built a substantial fundraising advantage. (Houston Chronicle)
For years, Texas Democrats have heard the same thing every election:
Maybe someday.
Nate Silver is now saying something very different.
If the election were a bet today, James Talarico would be the favorite.
And in Texas, that may be one of the biggest political stories of 2026.
