Here’s what stands out this morning, Monday, August 24, with new polling folded into the news rather than separated from it.
The biggest Texas development is that the national press is now treating Republican trouble here as a real pattern, not a curiosity. The Washington Post today has a story built around Texas conservatives saying they may split their tickets, including lifelong Republicans who still plan to vote for Ken Paxton but may vote against Greg Abbott. That matters because it suggests dissatisfaction is becoming candidate-specific rather than a wholesale party switch — exactly the kind of erosion that can produce statewide upsets.
That story is reinforced by ratings and polling. The Post cites a recent Fox News poll showing Abbott only one point ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and Cook Political has moved the governor’s race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Separately, the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is now rated a Toss-up, and a Cruz-linked super PAC has jumped in with a $1.7 million ad buy to help Paxton. Republicans do not spend that kind of money in Texas in August unless they see a problem.
There is also a broader Texas backlash around data centers. Abbott, who strongly promoted AI infrastructure not long ago, is now attacking the industry and saying data-center companies “dug their own grave.” CBS Texas reports that he has paused new projects while regulators conduct audits, and Democrats are demanding a special session. A national Annenberg poll cited by Axios shows 61% of Americans now oppose new data centers in their own communities, up sharply from earlier this year. That issue is beginning to behave like a genuine electoral problem in rural and suburban Texas.
Nationally, the Republican environment remains poor. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week puts Trump approval at 33%, the lowest of his presidency, with Democrats now gaining ground on both the economy and immigration. Republicans’ once-enormous advantage on immigration has reportedly shrunk to only 2 points. That is especially important because immigration was supposed to be one of the GOP’s safest issues going into the midterms.
The Senate map is also widening. The Wall Street Journal reports Democrats now have plausible paths not just through Maine, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, but through Texas, Iowa and possibly Alaska. Prediction markets are now essentially treating Senate control as even.
And today Reuters has a revealing piece on the upcoming Republican convention in Dallas. What was supposed to be a rally is now being described as partly a rescue mission, with party leaders trying to shore up enthusiasm amid dissatisfaction over the economy and the Iran war. Paxton is among the candidates who could benefit from the convention’s fundraising and visibility.
So the pattern this morning is stronger than it was a few days ago:
Texas is no longer merely “competitive in one race.” Abbott is weaker, Paxton is in a toss-up, national Republicans are spending money to rescue Texas, conservative voters are openly talking about split tickets, and Trump’s national approval is sitting at 33%.
That still does not mean a blue wave is proven. But several independent indicators are now pointing in the same direction.
