Letiicia Gutierrez like Jack and the Beanstalk may topple the Giant.
Last month, I wrote about Alex Mealer’s campaign in Texas’s 9th Congressional District. Mealer has made herself a champion of Donald Trump’s agenda. At the time, the Republican redraw of the district looked like it had made the election a formality. Now an election analyst has taken a second look.
On September 17, Inside Elections moved the 9th from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Let’s be clear about what that means: Mealer remains the favorite. But a race Republicans had every reason to think was safely theirs has become one they can no longer dismiss out of hand. Who would have expected that with Democrat Leticia Gutierrez running on a fraction of Mealer’s money?
Republicans redrew the 9th last year, shifting it from southern Houston toward east Harris County and Liberty County. Under the new lines, Trump would have carried it by about 20 points in 2024. Al Green, who represented the old 9th, ran in the redrawn 18th but lost the Democratic primary runoff to Christian Menefee in May. The district number survived; the electorate changed. This was supposed to be a Republican pickup.
Gutierrez is a community organizer without Mealer’s political profile or financial backing. In August, the Houston Chronicle reported that Mealer had raised more than $2 million while Gutierrez had raised $55,000. Those figures were a snapshot at the time, but the gap explains why the race looked so lopsided. Inside Elections has now changed its rating despite that gap.
Listen to the way rising prices are discussed. In March, Michele Tafoya, a Republican Senate candidate in Minnesota, suggested making one fewer trip to Starbucks to offset higher gasoline prices. On Facebook, I keep seeing versions of the same exchange: If you can pay eight dollars for coffee, why complain about gas? If you cannot afford a hamburger, try pork—or a soy burger. I am describing the posts I see, not quoting a Trump official. This is Texas, home of Whataburger. People want to know why the groceries and gasoline cost more, not be told what to leave out of the cart.
The question is what happens above this race on the ballot. The U.S. Senate contest comes first, followed by Congress and then governor. If James Talarico brings out Democrats and persuades enough voters who are tired of Trump and Ken Paxton, some of those voters may also choose Gutierrez. Greg Abbott’s race against Gina Hinojosa gives Texans another reason to turn out. A candidate with little money can still benefit from a large statewide turnout, although she must persuade voters to mark her name.
That last part matters. In 2018, Texans could select one party and vote for its candidates in a single step. Republican lawmakers passed the law ending straight-ticket voting in 2017, but it did not take effect until 2020. This year, a vote for Talarico does not automatically become a vote for Gutierrez. The Senate race could draw people to the polls; Gutierrez still needs them to vote in hers.
We have seen an anti-Trump midterm before. Democrats won control of the House in 2018 and gained 40 seats. That does not tell us what will happen in the 9th. There is no district poll here proving Gutierrez is ahead, and Likely Republican still means Mealer is favored. But six weeks before Election Day, even the analysts who called this seat solidly Republican have left themselves room to be surprised.
Republicans drew the lines. The voters get the last word.
