Texas Polls Show Openings for Democrats—and a Close Election Ahead
The newest Texas polls give Democrats encouraging numbers, particularly in the U.S. Senate race. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in three surveys released October 13–14. The governor’s race is less consistent: Gina Hinojosa narrowly leads Greg Abbott in one poll and trails him in two others. These are competitive races, with the leads falling within the surveys’ margins of error.
Hispanic turnout could make a substantial difference. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll puts Talarico ahead among likely Hispanic voters, 54% to 41%, and Hinojosa ahead 56% to 42%. Those preferences indicate an opportunity for Democrats, although they do not establish that Hispanic participation will increase.
Cost-of-living pressures and dissatisfaction with immigration enforcement could contribute to turnout. UMass Lowell/YouGov found that 56% of Texas likely voters said affording basic necessities had become harder over the preceding six months. ReconMR found that 56% thought ICE’s tactics had gone too far. These are statewide findings, rather than measurements specifically of Hispanic voters’ motivations.
The UT poll also found greater reported voting enthusiasm among Democrats: 72% were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 62% of Republicans. That supports the possibility of a Democratic turnout advantage, but does not establish that Hispanic voters opposed to Trump are more motivated than Hispanic Trump supporters. The decisive question is how these preferences translate into actual ballots.
U.S. Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton
| Poll | Released | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct. 14 | 47% | 45% |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | Oct. 13 | 50% | 47% |
| ReconMR | Oct. 13 | 48% | 44% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Oct. 8 | 45% | 45% |
The three newest releases show Talarico ahead by two to four points. The earlier UMass Lowell/YouGov survey found a tie.
Governor: Hinojosa vs. Abbott
| Poll | Released | Hinojosa | Abbott |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct. 14 | 45% | 49% |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | Oct. 13 | 49% | 48% |
| ReconMR | Oct. 13 | 47% | 48% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Oct. 8 | 44% | 48% |
The governor’s race ranges from a one-point Hinojosa lead to a four-point Abbott lead across these surveys.
Other Statewide Races: UT/Texas Politics Project
| Office | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Lieutenant governor | Vikki Goodwin — 49% | Dan Patrick — 46% |
| Attorney general | Nathan Johnson — 48% | Mayes Middleton — 47% |
| Railroad commissioner | Jon Rosenthal — 47% | Bo French — 46% |
| Comptroller | Sarah Eckhardt — 46% | Don Huffines — 47% |
Each lead is within the UT poll’s margin of error.
When the Surveys Were Conducted
| Poll | Interviews | Reported margin of error |
|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct. 8–11 | ±4.9 points |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | Sept. 25–Oct. 5 | ±3.34 points |
| ReconMR | Oct. 5–8 | ±4.4 points |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Sept. 18–28 | ±4.5 points |
All election results shown above are for likely voters. Interview dates matter: a newly released poll can reflect opinions collected weeks earlier. Percentages may not total 100% because other candidates, undecided voters, or other responses are omitted.