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Meme’s Crystal Ball Says Whitmire Ain’t Running Again
I have a T-shirt that says, “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with BS.” I put it on before I sat down to figure out whether John Whitmire will run for mayor again. You might want to put on a pot of coffee. I have numbers.
In November 2023, SurveyUSA asked 805 likely runoff voters who they would vote for. Whitmire led Sheila Jackson Lee 68 to 12 among Republicans, 63 to 20 among white voters, 43 to 23 among Hispanics, and 46 to 26 among independents. Democrats went the other way, 55 to 25. He even picked up 22 percent of the very liberal voters. Twenty-two percent of the whole sample was undecided, a group I could tell you a great deal about if I were willing to make it up. SurveyUSA runoff poll
Some of those Republicans were Hispanic, some of those white voters were Democrats, and if you add all those numbers together you’ll need to annex Pasadena to make the arithmetic work. What we do know is that Whitmire won with help from voters who usually have plenty to argue about. He told Houston that after half a century in the Legislature, he knew how to get the Republicans running Austin to listen. “I will tell them, and they’ll listen,” he said in 2023. “They have.” Houston Public Media’s runoff analysis · Whitmire’s 2023 interview
Now for the money. I added up 441 itemized contributions in Whitmire’s July filing and got $1,130,951.14, including in-kind donations. One expense for his annual fundraiser came to $41,203.25. I include the quarter so you’ll know this is serious research. The report covers January through June, which is a fine period for telling us what happened before November. Houston campaign finance records, report 2000000025
Tilman Fertitta hosted the fundraiser that launched Whitmire’s mayoral campaign. Mattress Mack and John Nau helped host it, too, shortly after putting $448,000 and $125,000, respectively, into Alex Mealer’s county judge campaign during its final reporting period. Mealer lost that race to Lina Hidalgo. Four years later, with Trump’s endorsement and a district Republicans had redrawn to help their candidate, Mealer lost to Leticia Gutierrez. I have yet to see a campaign check stand in line at a polling place. Whitmire’s campaign launch · Mealer’s 2022 fundraising · Mealer’s 2026 loss
Meanwhile, Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s race, Vikki Goodwin won the lieutenant governor’s race, and Democrats took the Texas House. Republicans kept the Senate, 19 to 12, so Whitmire still has people to call. The question is how many Houston voters still think they need him to make that call. Even Whitmire said the November results prompted him to change HPD’s policy on contacting ICE. He knows the election changed what he can do at City Hall. It also changed what he can sell to voters. Texas Legislature after the election · Whitmire’s ICE announcement
There is one fact that could spoil this whole column. In August, Whitmire talked openly about finishing his work at the end of a second term. He has the money to run and has said he intends to. Annise Parker also had a record of winning elections in Houston. A May poll put her 18 points ahead in the Democratic runoff for county judge. Letitia Plummer beat her by 2,542 votes. Whitmire on a second term · Parker–Plummer runoff result
Whitmire already has his trophy. He can finish his term, go home, and spend the rest of his life telling people he never lost an election. My crystal ball says that sounds pretty damn good to him.
And that is why I don’t think Whitmire will run again.