Two-word answer, Jasmine Crockett. The most money will be spent by the two Democrats vying for the US Senate, Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico.
The new 29th is 43% Hispanic, 33% Black, 18% white, and 4% Asian. Below are the demographics for the old 29th.
Who are the primary voters in Harris County?
White likely voters account for 48% of this survey population of likely Harris County Democratic primary
voters, Black likely voters 30%, Latino likely voters 18% and others 4% (2% Asian American, 2%
something else). Women represent 57.7% of this population, men 41.7 and others 0.6%. Likely voters
between the ages of 18 and 44 account for 27% of this population, those ages 45 to 64 for 39% and
those 65 and older for 34%. Four-fifths (80%) of the population identifies as Democrat, with 17%
identifying as Independent and 3% unsure of their partisan identification or identifying with either the
Republican Party or with a minor party.
Jarvis Johnson represented a good chunk of the 29th as a State Representative. Johnson lost to Molly Cook in a run-off for Senate 15.
I will leave myself an out: Garcia can win if she builds a strong coalition with the White progressive voters in that district, as Molly Cook did, but there were more white voters in that contest. The !5th Senate seat is;
Sylvia Garcia must also increase the percentage of Hispanic voters who turn out in the primary. If one compares the new 29th district with the Senate 15th district, one will find that the rate of Black voters is higher and the percentage of White voters is lower.