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Polls have consistently shown Paxton leading the race, however, and there’s little evidence that the tens of millions Cornyn’s allies have spent on the race so far have swayed voters. A poll of likely primary voters from the University of Houston released last week showed Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The poll also showed Cornyn, who’s never been loved by the GOP base due to his record working across the aisle, losing to Paxton by 11 points in a runoff election.
The outcome could reverberate beyond Texas: Operatives in both parties believe Cornyn would be a heavy favorite in November while Paxton would put GOP control of the seat at risk, especially if state Rep. James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination.
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